Navigating the Poultry Industry in 2025 – A Look at Rabobank’s Q2 Report

As the global poultry industry strides into 2025, Rabobank’s latest Poultry Quarterly Q2 report, released on April 2, offers a compelling snapshot of a sector poised for growth yet shadowed by uncertainty. Forecasting a 2.5% to 3% rise in consumption, the report paints poultry as a beacon of affordability amid rising protein costs, while sounding the alarm on geopolitical turbulence and operational hurdles. But beneath the numbers lies a question: does this analysis illuminate the path forward, or does it subtly steer stakeholders toward a preferred narrative? This article dissects Rabobank’s insights, grounding them in hard data and real-world trends, with a spotlight on the Middle East.

Poultry Industry on the Move

Rabobank’s prediction of 2.5% to 3% consumption growth signals a robust year, a leap from the 1.5% average of recent years. In Cairo’s bustling markets, poultry demand surged 10% in early 2025 as beef prices soared (Al-Ahram, April 5), a trend mirrored across the Middle East where affordability reigns supreme. The USDA echoes this optimism, pegging growth at 2.8%, driven by population booms and tourism in places like the UAE. Yet, inflation looms large—could Rabobank’s upper estimate be a stretch if economic winds shift?

The Affordability Edge

Poultry’s price tag—USD 2.10/kg versus beef’s USD 5.50/kg—makes it a consumer darling, a point Rabobank nails. In Saudi Arabia, where self-sufficiency ambitions target 80% by year’s end, shoppers are flocking to chicken as red meat costs climb (Saudi Press Agency, January 2025). This isn’t hype; it’s economics at work. Still, supply risks like avian influenza could nudge prices up, a nuance Rabobank mentions but doesn’t dwell on.

Trade Winds and Geopolitical Storms

Geopolitical tensions—think U.S. tariffs and Middle East shipping woes—are reshaping trade, with Rabobank tipping Brazil and Thailand as winners. Brazil’s 12% export spike to the Gulf proves this (ABPA, March 2025), yet Turkey’s quiet 15% rise suggests Rabobank’s lens might be narrow.

In the Middle East, imports jumped 10%, but local projects—like Qatar’s USD 13 million push, Saudi Arabia 2030 Vision—hint at a future less reliant on foreign birds. Rabobank’s trade focus feels pragmatic, though it sidesteps these regional shifts.

Operational Realities

Avian influenza haunts the industry, with Europe and the United States reeling from outbreaks (OIE, April 6). Egypt’s chick supply dipped 5% (Youm7, April 4), and hatching egg prices soared 25% (Poultry News, April 5), validating Rabobank’s caution. Its vaccination pitch makes sense—France’s success shows it works—but industry wise, mentioning only France tempers the enthusiasm for me. Here, Rabobank informs without overreaching, but there are better examples.

Conclusion: A Dynamic Poultry Landscape

Rabobank’s April 2025 Poultry Quarterly Report delivers a compelling overview of the global poultry sector, spotlighting its adaptability amid geopolitical uncertainties and its growth fueled by affordability and demand, particularly in the Middle East.

However, the report may not fully capture the region’s accelerating momentum toward self-sufficiency, where Turkey and Brazil stand out as driving forces. With robust investments in poultry production and infrastructure, the Middle East is strengthening its position as a cornerstone of regional food security, leveraging its strategic location to meet rising demand.

Across the Middle East, this push for self-sovereignty is gaining traction, signaling a shift toward a more independent and resilient market. Turkey’s expanding role, in particular, underscores a positive trend: a poultry industry increasingly shaped by regional leaders committed to stability and growth. As 2025 unfolds, these developments merit close attention, reflecting an evolving landscape where opportunity and progress are taking root.